State of Global Climate Politics 2025 – Climate Action vs. Political Uncertainty: Can the World Stay on Track with the Paris Agreement?
- fpcindonesia
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On 11 April 2025, the FPCI Climate Unit hosted a virtual public discussion “State of Global Climate Politics 2025 – Climate Action vs. Political Uncertainty: Can the World Stay on Track with the Paris Agreement?” The discussion raised critical questions: Can the Paris Agreement survive amid growing global tensions? What will it take to restore momentum ahead of COP30 in Brazil?
The discussion explored the future of international climate cooperation, the challenges facing the Paris Agreement, and emerging pathways to revitalize global efforts amid current geopolitical, economic, and environmental crises. To explore these pressing issues, FPCI convened three distinguished climate experts and practitioners from the United States, India, and Brazil.
Panelists
Alice Hill – David M. Rubenstein Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment, Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh – Founder and CEO of Council on Energy, Environment, and Water (CEEW)
Rosana Santos – Executive Director E+ Energy Transition Institute
Moderator
Kiara Mulia, Program Manager of FPCI Climate Unit
Alice Hill: The U.S. Shift and the Fragility of Global Climate Trust
Alice Hill emphasized that the U.S. withdrawal under President Trump from the Paris Agreement—and its potential retreat from the UNFCCC—poses a significant risk to global cooperation. She stressed that the future of the Paris Agreement rests heavily on what the United States does next.
"For the Paris Agreement, I think it largely turns on American behavior right now. America is the largest historical emitter, the second-largest emitter, has the world's largest economy, and the largest producer of oil and gas. Under this administration, it's turned its back on efforts to control climate change."
She argued that the U.S. cannot simply be absent from the global negotiating table without grave consequences. Its withdrawal erodes international trust, weakens momentum, and threatens financial support commitments to developing nations.
But if the U.S. pulls back, who will step up?
Building on that point, Hill emphasized the responsibility of other major economies to step up and lead the transition due to their legacy systems and substantial contributions to global emissions.
“I hope that the EU—and it has its own pressures—can continue to exhibit leadership. And one place that may be material for larger economies is with climate risk disclosure and standards that they're putting in place.”
She noted that while the European Union is expected to maintain its climate leadership despite internal challenges, there is also a clear opportunity for China to step up — particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
Despite the challenges, Hill pointed out bright spots. First, private sector leadership is accelerating, particularly in carbon removal technologies, citing Microsoft's recent major investment in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) solutions. Second, clean energy deployment is gaining ground globally, especially in developing nations––even though official statistics often fail to capture the scale of these changes.
She underlined that “climate change knows no borders,” making international cooperation not just desirable, but essential.
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh: Climate Losing Its Place in "High Politics"
Dr. Arunabha Ghosh painted a stark picture: climate is slipping down the global agenda. Facing global economic stagnation, debt crises, and escalating disasters, many leaders now treat climate as a secondary concern—threatening the collective momentum built over the past decade.
Dr. Ghosh stressed the need to focus on areas where action and innovation are already taking root. He pointed to India’s remarkable clean energy growth—from less than 20 MW of solar capacity in 2010 to more than 220,000 MW of non-fossil electricity today. Advances in industrial decarbonization, battery storage, and competitive renewable energy auctions are rapidly transforming India’s energy landscape.
Regarding the spirit of Paris, Dr. Ghosh warned that climate change risks are being downgraded on the global political agenda.
"Over the last 10 years, we managed to make sure that climate was recognized not just as an environmental issue, but as a macroeconomic, security, geopolitical, and geoeconomic issue. Now, with competing crises, climate action risks slipping from high politics to lower political priorities."
He identified the four "Elephants in the Room" hampering progress:
Development Slowdown: Economic convergence between rich and poor nations can no longer be assumed.
Debt Burden: Over 60 countries now spend more on debt service than on education, health, or climate action.
Disaster Vulnerability: Poor countries are 15 times more vulnerable, with most losses even unrecorded.
Difficult Decarbonization Trade-offs: It’s harder to push for decarbonization amid development and disaster pressures.
Dr. Ghosh called for a broader strategy that goes beyond governments. He emphasized the importance of empowering new agents of change — businesses, consumers, youth, investors, and innovators — to lead the charge.
"The actions are by businesses, by citizens, by consumers, by youth, etc. — agents of change. If the agents of change keep waiting for the global or the national policy signal alone, they will act, but they will not act sufficiently."
While emerging economies like India are demonstrating climate leadership, Ghosh underscored that major emitters — the U.S., EU, and China — still hold the keys to the global outcome.
Looking toward COP30 in Brazil, Ghosh suggested that even preserving the core of the Paris framework would count as a success. However, he also urged a shift in focus: from energy transitions to embedding climate action across sectors — including agriculture, water systems, and resilience planning.
He illustrated this with an example from India:
"For every 10 million rupees invested in clean energy, you create one job. That’s more than fossil fuels. But the same amount generates eight jobs in the circular economy and 12 jobs in nature-based solutions. Climate action is now far broader — it cannot remain confined to the energy sector."
He added that climate action cannot be just an “energy vertical” anymore. If COP30 becomes a platform not just to avoid catastrophe, but also to unlock economic opportunity, then there’s still room for hope.
Dr. Ghosh closed the conversation by highlighting the deeper values underpinning climate action.
"Climate change is not the greatest problem we face. The real crisis is a crisis of empathy — a failure to understand the lived realities of people across colors, cultures, and geographies."
Rosana Santos: Rethinking Energy Transition and Road to COP30
Rosana Santos, Executive Director of the E+ Energy Transition Institute, delivered a sharp critique of current global dynamics, warning that U.S. disengagement is already weakening climate momentum.
“When you talk to people on the ground—especially in industry—they’re beginning to say, ‘If they’re not doing it, why should we?’ As a civil society, we must fight like hell against that mindset.”
She argued for a broader and more inclusive definition of energy transition—one that recognizes diverse technological pathways and local contexts, particularly in the Global South. In Brazil, where 93% of the energy mix is already renewable, she questioned the rationale behind continued solar panel imports.
Santos emphasized the need to revisit and expand what qualifies as clean technology. Beyond electrification and hydrogen, she called for greater recognition of bio-based solutions, especially those emerging from the Global South. These technologies, she argued, could accelerate net zero progress while also tackling economic inequality.
“If we accept the technologies that the Global South can offer—not just electrification or hydrogen, but also bio-based solutions—we might speed up the net-zero transition, fill the gap left by the U.S., and redefine what a just transition really means. It’s not just about clean energy—it’s about creating quality jobs and economic complexity in new geographies.”
This moment, she stressed, is an opportunity to rethink global supply chains. Instead of shifting emissions through imports, she advocated for building low-emission manufacturing hubs in the Global South.
Looking ahead to COP30, Santos highlighted three core priorities for Brazil’s presidency:
Reviving Multilateralism Santos pointed out that “Multilateralism has enabled the longest period of peace in modern history. Despite the U.S. disengagement, COP30 must demonstrate that climate diplomacy can still function.”
Redefining "Just Transition" Brazil’s COP30 President, Ambassador André Aranha Corrêa do Lago aims to expand the concept of just transition, moving beyond energy access and worker retraining to also address equity and global inequality.
Reshaping Climate Finance Santos argued that climate finance has been too narrowly focused on clean energy projects and not enough on transforming economies.
“We’re only talking about moving from fossil energy to renewable energy, but unless we also finance the green transformation of industries—steel, manufacturing, and agriculture—we won’t achieve a true economic transition.”
She also proposed the idea of a “Belém Consensus” — a call to replace outdated global economic models like the Washington Consensus with a new development paradigm rooted in emissions mitigation and job creation. Santos invited global partners to help shape this vision at COP30 and the upcoming G20.
You can rewatch the conversation on our YouTube channel "Sekretariat FPCI."